IMF Projects World Worst Recession more than the 1930 Great Depression

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 Coronavirus pandemic has caused a tragedy never seen in our lifetime. Hundreds of thousands of people have died globally with US, Italy, Spain, and France having the highest numbers.

Countries have implemented measures to reduce the spread of the virus. Among the measures taken include lockdown, isolation, and quarantine of individuals to minimize the spread.

The outbreak decreased economic activities globally with the airline industry, tourism, international trade being the worst hit.

In April, the world economic outlook projected a drop to 3% of global development in 2020. This is a drop of 6.3% points from January 2020. It is only clear that the pandemic will cause a depression far worse than the great depression.

For the first time in a long time, both the advanced economies and the developing economies are undergoing a recession.

Countries that rely on tourism, entertainment, travel, and hospitality as their source of growth are already experiencing the disruption of the pandemic.

If the pandemic fades away in the second half of the year, with all the preventive measures put in place, only a rebound of 5.8% global growth will be expected in 2021. The cumulative global output loss will be around $9 trillion over 2020 and 2021. 

If the pandemic does not end in the second half of the year, worse financial conditions and further breakdowns of global supply chains will be anticipated. 

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About Author

Anthony Kiratu is the Founder of Finsolutions. He is a financial analyst with over 5 years experience in research, investment advisory, valuation and financial modelling. Anthony is a member of the Institute of Certified Investment and Financial Analysts and Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Kenya. He is passionate about development of African Capital Markets through training of investors and dissemination of information for sound financial and investment decision making process. He is also a part-time lecturer in the Certified Investment and Financial Analyst course in the subjects of International Finance, Portfolio Management, Equity Investment Analysis, and Fixed Income Securities. Email: anthony@finsolutions.co.ke Contact: +254 780216631

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